I Predicted the Sierra Nevada Shaker

By Cal Orey, Author Intuitive

California, the Golden State has been in a seismic lull. My earthquake wager with geologist Jim Berkland has been ongoing for nearly three years. Still no 6.0 has hit NorCal (my choice of region) nor his SoCal. My three choices for potential epicenters have remained the same: Offshore NorCal (Petrolia or Eureka), SF Bay Area (East/South Bay), and Tahoe Vista...

Fast forward to December 8, 2009: I did forecast a 4.0-5.0 may hit the Sierra Nevada region by December 31. There was a swarm a few days after and then it paid us a visit again and ended up in a 3.8 (downgraded by the USGS) to a 3.7. The shaker was reported to the USGS by more than 140 people--felt in South Lake Tahoe to Reno. And, the epicenter was near my picks--Tahoe Vista (a place where a 4.8 hit several years ago and I felt it, my cat sensed it).

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquake (link to show where felt)
http://ourlegacybook.com/EECForum/index.php?board=2.0s/dyfi/events/nn/00300426/us/index.html

Take a look at the forecast: Sierra NV 4.0-5.0 NOW-Dec. 31, scroll down a couple of posts to original forecast and mention of seimsic lull--and snow which can trigger quakes as both Jim Berkland and I noted in a past Tahoe Daily Tribune article.

On my site (I am co-founder/moderator/author of The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes and columnist for Earth Changes, Oracle 20-20 magazine) www.earthquakeepi-center.com click on the forums (Predictions) the Sierra Nevada prediction is on top. I'm holding my ground that there still is a 60% probability for a 4-5.0 to hit by December 31.

My Anti-Prediction a HIT--No 8.0 "Huge" CA Quake

By Cal Orey, Author Intuitive

As co-founder of www.earthquakeepi-center.com I posted an anti-prediction towards a whimsical earthquake forecast made by an individual with no name. It was picked up by an online writer and included a picture of the golden state which showed a big, big circle near Lake Tahoe--my home. Of course, I took notice and made my own prediction which hit. We survived the great quake that didn't happen. Here, take a look at my post and anti-prediction:

NEW CA Prediction: Don't Hold Your Breath

Reply #2 on: November 05, 2009, 07:55:28 PM

Sure, a great quake is possible in the next 2 months. But CA? Come on, we all know who this "quake predictor" may be and the track record for CA going down? It's well, here's my response to the writer of the article... Also, I will give $100 to a charity if a "great" 8.0+ hits CA this month. In other words, I'm making an anti-prediction (again) it ain't going to happen. (Accuracy rate? 100%) But, a major quake such as a 7.0 to 7.2 (or so) Offshore NorCal (Petrolia/Eureka) is possible but not GREAT. One more thing: Just reread the "article." Yeah, an Indian Ocean great quake or China great quake is possible (and even AK, for sure) before 2010 but CA? Not yet.your article is absurd. Your quake predictor is nameless. No data. You are setting up gullible Californians for a let down and panic. People, like me, have to settle folks down because of such pieces. Shame on you.

"A dog doesn't care if you're rich or poor. If you give him your heart, he'll give you his." -- Marley & Me www.calorey.com

And for those curious, here's the link to the quake prediction that fizzled:

http://newsblaze.com/story/20091105125448ianb.nb/topstory.html

The World Series Quake Predictor: 20 Years Later...Will It Happen Again?

By Cal Orey, Author Intuitive

Today I can still find myself pondering deadly fault lines and many of the earthquakes that I personally survived. Like me and other people, you’re likely to be both fascinated and freaked out by the power of earthquakes around the world, past and present. This fascination led me to Jim Berkland, who is the only American scientist to predict and name a major quake. Jim, a California geologist whose forecast of the famous October 17, 1989 “World Series Quake” that rumbled through the San Francisco Bay Area was right on the money. He’s also accurately predicted other significant quakes around the world. He is the subject of "The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes."...

This is the first book to document a geologist’s uncanny ability to foretell earthquakes around the world. Many of his theories--based on tides, moons, geyser activity, disoriented pets, lost cats and dogs, and magnetic field changes--are linked to the great Indian Ocean quake-tsunami disaster on December 26, 2004. Since scientists admit they aren’t able to reliably predict earthquakes, is it really so far-fetched to monitor lost cats? Berkland doesn’t think so. Berkland hopes that “someday earthquake warnings will be announced along with the weather” and could save countless people’s lives around the world.

This fascinating read includes stories of earthquake survivors, a wealth of details about seismic activity in earthquake prone regions–-West Coast, Midwest, the South, East Coast, China, Japan, and around the world, tales of earthquake cover-ups, and future weather and quake predictions. Written in a warm and witty style, and full of cutting-edge advice about do-it-yourself quake warnings and earthquake preparedness, The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes is a timely and important book.

Table of contents for
The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes : Jim Berkland, Maverick Geologist : How his Quake Warnings Can Save Lives / Cal Orey.
Contents
Acknowledgments
Foreword:
Preface
The Power of Earthquakes
PART ONE: THE PREDICTOR
Chapter 1
From Kid to Renegade Geologist
Chapter 2
Mother Nature's Forecasters
Chapter 3
Berkland Turns to Cats and Dogs
Chapter 4
The Grr-eat Cat-aclysm
PART TWO: THE NEW AGE MOVEMENT
Chapter 5
Tuning into Earthquake "Sensitives"
Chapter 6
Dreams and Visions
Chapter 7
Other Quake Predictors
PART THREE: SHAKERS AND SEISMIC WINDOWS
Chapter 8
West Coast Vibrations
Chapter 9
Pacific Northwest to Alaska
Chapter 10
Midwest Movements, Southern Shakes
Chapter 11
The East Coast Rocks
Chapter 12
What's Shakin' Around the World?
PART FOUR: THE BIG WAVE
Chapter 13
The Great Quake-Tsunami of 2004
Chapter 14
Where Are the Quake Warnings?
PART FIVE: POLITICS AND QUAKES
Chapter 15
"High Science" vs. Lost Four-Leggers
Chapter 16
The Frisco Quake Coverup
PART SIX: BRACING FOR THE BIG ONE
Chapter 17
"Good-bye, California?"
Chapter 18
The 20 Most Important
Questions about Earth Changes
Chapter 19
"Don't Be Scared; Be Prepared!"
Chapter 20
Future Foreshock(s), Wow!
Aftershocks
Berkland's Glossary
Bibliography

Available on www.amazon.com and www.barnesandnoble.com
For interviews --
20 Years Later: World Series Earthquake...
Will It Happen Again?
Contact Cal Orey/Jim Berkland
http://www.calorey.com/
COrey39184@aol.com

NorCal 3.6 Rattles SF Bay Area as Forecasted

By Cal Orey, Author-Intuitive

Recently, on national radio shows I've been repeating the words that "California is overdue for a shaker." After all, it's been quiet as stress builds up. Sure, Offshore NorCal shook a 5.9 on November 28, 2008 (as I predicted for the year a 6.0 would hit). And on May 17 a 4.7 temblor hit near Long Beach, again as I forecasted on my site www.earthquakeepi-center.com -- and noted on Coast to Coast the next day.

Rewind to last month. In the September issue of Oracle 20-20 magazine, in my monthly Earth Changes column I wrote:

...I sense September may be more vulnerable in the Golden State. On August 3, a 6.9 quake jolted the Gulf of California and was widely felt in Southern California. This could be the wake up period of ending the buildup of stress along the San Andreas Fault and abnormally calm Pacific Northwest (San Francisco Bay Area and Offshore Northern California). It’s been too quiet, too long...

And a follow-up prediction by me recently was posted on www.earthquakeepi-center.com in the Earthquake Prediction forum followed this month that S.F. Bay Area will give us a 5.0+ quake by October 31--based on several things including history and the seismic lull. So is more to come for the SF Bay Area? I give it 70% odds "yes" and by the time October ends but probably sooner.

Offshore OR 5.2 Quake Hits in August on Cue

By Cal Orey, Author-Intuitive

Today, I woke up to see on the USGS quake map that Offshore OR is shaking it up (again). Remember the mysterious swarm that came and went? Well, it's ba-a-ck--maybe. I mentioned on Coast to Coast radio program that the West Coast "was" in a mega lull and said "stress, stress, stress" is building and that I'd be shocked if a quake in CA didn't happen in CA in the month of August. On August 7, 4 days after the show--a 4.9 did hit Offshore NorCal near Petrolia and was reported felt by residents in the region of NorCal. And that's not all...

See below my forecast the day after the national program (podcasts can be heard it you go to the Coast to Coast site...I mention it and include a link to it on my Website: www.calorey.com -- top right, click the C2C recap noted on August 3). An after thought: I think I noted on the recent program the past mysterious swarm Offshore OR...and how it's overdue to rumble. Note to self. Must listen. Or, if you do hear the show, please contact me at COrey39184@aol.com .

The next day, this forecast was posted right here on this blog and my Website Earthquakeepi-center.com http://www.earthquakeepi-center.com/ -- the popular thread on Earthquke Predictions forum regarding the prediction West Coast+ 5.0-5.9...

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

West Coast Seismic Lull May Be Over in August '09
West Coast Seismic Lull May Be Over
By Cal Orey
Last night I was a guest among others on Coast to Coast radio program. We discussed the ongoing earthquake wager in the works: Geologist Jim Berkland and I, an author-intuitive aka "earthquake sensitive" have had a bet regarding where the next 6.0+ will hit in Calif., the Golden State. I say NorCal, he says SoCal. Still all is quiet for more than 2 1/2 years.

Caveat: A 5.9 did hit Offshore NorCal in Nov. 2008; I did forecast the Long Beach 4.7 recent jolt. But that's it.All has been quiet until yesterday...a 6.9 struck the Gulf of Calif. and was widely felt in SoCal, AZ, TX, and Mexico. In two days, we have a Full Moon Eclipse...This may or may not trigger more quakes in the U.S. Or the quake south of the border could migrate north. I believe the "hot spots" in CA are Offshore NorCal, SF Bay Area, Sierra Nevada (Mammoth Lakes to Tahoe-Reno), and San Fernando Valley. And the Pacific Northwest (Offshore OR and near Seattle aren't immune). Probability of a moderate+ quake hitting in one of these regions this month of August is 70%.

West Coast Seismic Lull May Be Over in August '09

West Coast Seismic Lull May Be Over

By Cal Orey

Last night I was a guest among others on Coast to Coast radio program. We discussed the ongoing earthquake wager in the works: Geologist Jim Berkland and I, an author-intuitive aka "earthquake sensitive" have had a bet regarding where the next 6.0+ will hit in Calif., the Golden State. I say NorCal, he says SoCal. Still all is quiet for more than 2 1/2 years. Caveat: A 5.9 did hit Offshore NorCal in Nov. 2008; I did forecast the Long Beach 4.7 recent jolt. But that's it.


All has been quiet until yesterday...a 6.9 struck the Gulf of Calif. and was widely felt in SoCal, AZ, TX, and Mexico. In two days, we have a Full Moon Eclipse...This may or may not trigger more quakes in the U.S. Or the quake south of the border could migrate north. I believe the "hot spots" in CA are Offshore NorCal, SF Bay Area, Sierra Nevada (Mammoth Lakes to Tahoe-Reno), and San Fernando Valley. And the Pacific Northwest (Offshore OR and near Seattle aren't immune). Probability of a moderate+ quake hitting in one of these regions this month of August is 70%.

One more thing: On my other blog http://www.calorey.blogspot.com/ I posted these words earlier today, which I find strange and coincidental:

On Sunday I had making gourmet homemade guacamole (all by myself) on my mind. Ironically, today during the proofing process of my September Earth Changes article about Mother Nature being on vacation--a 6.9 powerful quake hit the Gulf of California... I find this eerie because a few days ago I predicted on http://www.earthquakeepi-center.com/ that the upcoming lunar eclipse/Full Moon may rock the U.S. --this shaker was widely felt in Arizona, Texas, California--and Mexico (a place the popular dip made from avocados orginated)...

NorCal 4.0-50+ Shaker Now-July 31

Prediction

Offshore NorCal (Petrolia or Eureka; Crescent City possible epis)

and/or

SF Bay Area (East Bay or South Bay possible epis)

based on AWOL dogs 33/28; 8 cats

Recent minor quakes Offshore NorCal and overdue due to seismic lull

60% percent probability

long left ear tones (usually good for SF and Offshore NorCal)

The Geysers/Pinnacles ping pong--in the middle a quake often occurs during this period

Solar eclipse/erratic tides during Jim Berkland's seismic window but could hit before

A Perfect Quake: Offshore NorCal Overdue for Shaker in June

A Perfect Setup for an Earthquake Sequel?

I remember June 15, 2005--7.2 Offshore NorCal Shaker... Let's face it. This region is usually seismically active. But today, Offshore Northern California is experiencing a mega seismic lull (unlike 4 years ago) with recent small teaser-type swarms both offshore and inland of NorCal. We haven't had much significant movement for more than six months--and it's overdue to shake.

On Nov. 29, 2008 a 5.9 hit near Petrolia. And, who can forget on June 15, 2005 "California June Jitters" a 7.2 struck which was followed by a faulty tsunami alert for a short span. Then, a 6.7 aftershock and 4.9 came and went. Today, is the anniversary of the memorable shaker during a month of more than one California shaker.

Fast forward: June 2009, I'm sensing this vulnerable offshore coastal area--Petrolia, Eureka, Crescent City--in that order for a potential epi, should shake this month. It could happen now all the way until and through the upcoming New Moon on June 22 and extreme tidal period coming later this month. The lunar cycle and erratic tides could give it a push. Or not.

Prediction

5.0+ Offshore NorCal

Potential Epi: Petrolia, Eureka, Crescent City

Now-June 30

Probability 50%

Notes: Long left ear tone (in a public place yesterday--very odd for me); history often repeats itself; activity this month including a swarm of minor quakes may have been a sign for an upcoming quake.

SF Bay Area Temblor Rumbles East Bay On Cue

Author-Intuitive Forecasted SF Bay Area (East Bay) Would Shake Rattle, and Roll

On the site www.earthquakeepi-center.com this post is on the Predictions Forum. Yesterday, I was speaking with geologist Jim Berkland and I told him my dog Simon was acting extremely clingy (getting on top of me while sitting in a chair; being a "Velcro Canine") --a sign to me for the SF Bay Area or Tahoe to quake. (Also, intense earthquake headache; humidifier has been on for past 3 days.)

Before midnight a friend in Oakland called me...I said, "A quake?" I was waiting for this which follows the felt 3.2 two days prior in El Cerrito. Both quakes are near Oakland and felt throughout the East Bay as predicted. And more may be on its way for this month of June.

Re: SF Bay -Area NOW-June 30, 4.0-5.0+
Reply #6 on: June 06, 2009, 06:49:53 PM
... What's bugging me now is that both dogs have been roughhousing past few days--a lot. And Simon, 6 yr. old keeps trying to get up in my lap. Very odd. Again, this behavior is often linked to quakes that happen in Tahoe/Sierra region or SF Bay area.
Report to moderator 24.176.240.142 (?)
"I've seen a look in dogs' eyes, a quickly vanishing look of amazed contempt, and I am convinced that basically dogs think humans are nuts." --John Steinbeckhttp://caloreyquakepredictor.blogspot.com/ http://www.calorey.com/http://calorey.blogspot.com/

A minor earthquake occurred at 3:15:04 PM (PDT) on Monday, June 8, 2009.The magnitude 3.7 event occurred 1 km (1 miles) NE of Danville, CA.The hypocentral depth is 8 km ( 5 miles).
Magnitude
3.7 - regional moment magnitude (Mw)
Time
Monday, June 8, 2009 at 3:15:04 PM (PDT)Monday, June 8, 2009 at 22:15:04 (UTC)
Distance from
Danville, CA - 1 km (1 miles) NE (43 degrees)Diablo, CA - 2 km (1 miles) SSW (197 degrees)Blackhawk, CA - 4 km (3 miles) WNW (285 degrees)Concord, CA - 17 km (11 miles) SSE (164 degrees)Oakland, CA - 23 km (15 miles) E (83 degrees)
Coordinates
37 deg. 49.2 min. N (37.821N), 121 deg. 57.8 min. W (121.963W)
Depth
8.1 km (5.0 miles)
Location Quality
Excellent

Source: USGS

Calif. Quake June Jitters 2005 Sequel?

A Moderate+ Shaker in the Works for California

by Cal Orey

I remember June 2005. A whole lotta shakin' was going on. We had the 7.2 and 6.7 Offshore NorCal; 4.8 (which I felt) in Tahoe Vista. And two 4.0+s in SoCal. So, the question remains, will June shake our Golden State?

Uh yeah, I think so. We did endure two 4.7's in May: SoCA near Long Beach and Keeler south of Mammoth Lakes (I was 100 miles off for the eq swarm/5.0 I forecasted for the Sierra region south of Lake Tahoe).

Prediction

A moderate+ quake will strike Calif. this month. Likely epicenters are plentiful and in this order: Offshore NorCal (Petrolia or Eureka); SF Bay Area (East Bay-Oakland, South Bay-Alum Rock or Morgan Hill) and felt throughout...if a 5.0+ hits it will be felt throughout NorCal. Mammoth Lakes isn't out of the question (we did have two minor swarms in May); and Tahoe Vista could have a repeat--overdue (the 4.7 Verdi Mogul Apr. 25 was the last time I felt the Earth move). SoCA? San Fernando Valley is still in the running for up to a 5.9 and near Long Beach (again). 60% probability a 5.0+ will rumble through California before June is over. More likely to happen during lunar cycles but not necessary.

Woman Who Predicts Earthquakes
Tahoe Vista quake (4.8), June 26, 2005. Prediction: On June 23, ... A 4.8 earthquake struck at 11:45 a.m. five miles from Tahoe Vista, Calif., ...www.calorey.com/WomanPredictsQuakes.html - 48k - Cached - Similar pages -

May Offshore NorCal/OR-Mammoth Lakes Quake Forecast Update

Update: My May forecast made in Oracle 20-20 magazine included a 5.0-6.0 swarm/quake in two regions. So far, a 4.2 struck near Eureka, Offshore NorCal on May 3; 4.2 did hit Offshore OR on May 26; an ongoing swarm including a 4.7 on the 23rd hit approximately 100 miles south of Mammoth Lakes on the edge of the Sierra Nevada; a minor swarm rumbled around Mammoth Lakes earlier in mid month. Five days left. It could go either way or fizzle. 50% probability a 5.0 will hit the regions in my forecast.

Original Prediction: May Forcast: Like March, April-May may experience a quake swarm and/or a quake in historical spots known for quake swarms and moderate shakers, such as Mammoth Lakes, Calif., and Offshore Oregon/NorCal (Petrolia or Eureka). I forecast a 5.0 to 6.0+ in one of these regions by June 1, 70% probability.

California: Offshore NorCal, Mammoth, SoCA May Rumble

NorCal or SoCA May Rumble Before June

All is quiet in the Golden State. Too quiet. Still sensing Offshore NorCal (a few micros today); SF Bay Area (Morgan Hill teases with a micro; AWOL dogs are up in San Jose with a 50 mile radius); or Mammoth Lakes (a mini swarm continues in the Sierra Nevada) will rattle nerves with a shake or two.

Not to ignore the SoCA reports I've gotten in the past two days (both humans and pets are on edge and/or acting out near the Long Beach and Los Angeles area, including Northridge). Cats are affectionate and vocal. Dogs restless. Humans noting physical cues to rehashing memories of Northridge earthquake of 1994.

So, it wouldn't be shocking to see more movement in the San Fernando Valley region. Sticking with my prediction in the Earth Changes May article that Offshore NorCal or Mammoth may shake a 5.0. (Ditto with more coming, stronger shaking following the recent Greater Los Angeles but may be extended until June.)

One week left in May, one would think the Earth will move some where, some place, some time in California as the tides will be erratic in a few days and the New Moon rises. Still, if nothing happens June may be a repeat of June Jitters 2005--the ping pong quake effect in NorCal and SoCA.

Note: I noted the same feeling on May 10 (scroll down to archived post on this blog) regarding a seismic lull. One week later: SoCA rocked on cue.

Sierra Ready to Shake?

SIERRA REGION IS OVERDUE FOR A SHAKER

I've been getting word images "Mammoth Lakes" and the "Sierra" which are getting stronger. A swarm of micros (again) this month are south of Tahoe and on the NV side of the Sierra Nevada region. http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Maps/119-37.html
Last year we were dealing with the ongoing swarm at Verdi-Mogul...And there is the 1980 Mammoth Lakes big quake swarm with 6.0s. We've got a New Moon on the rise in a few days so I'm on my toes and watching to see if my seismically sensitive critters will be on their paws. So far, fairly mellow here. But a moderate quake around the Tahoe area (Tahoe Vista, Truckee and south down to Markleeville) as well as Mammoth Lakes is over due and it wouldn't shock me if we did get a main shock before May is over...
Speaking of months. June isn't out of the question either for a moderate Sierra shaker. In June 2005, Tahoe Vista shook a strong 4.8 and my cat sensed it prior and 15 minutes before it rocked my house. http://www.calorey.com/WomanPredictsQuakes.html [Scroll down to #4]
And there is a new study circulating about how Lake Tahoe is capable of a major quake plus. Read: A whole lotta water out there from the deep, dark, cold lake could produce a seiche or tsunami as it did centuries ago.

Author-Intuitive Predicted SoCal 4.7 Quake

Oops. I did it again. On my Web site http://www.earthquakeepi-center.com/ I forecasted a quake to rumble through Southern California--and I noted the date, potential epicenters, and probability. Long Beach was my first choice--and Long Beach certainly felt the jolt. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/dyfi/events/ci/10410337/us/index.html

Here, take a look. Also, you can go to the site and check it out on Predictions Forums.

SoCA, 4.5-5.9+ Now-June 30 « on: May 02, 2009, 11:33:01 AM »

Prediction 4.5-5.9+ SoCA (Long Beach, Simi Valley, Northridge within 60 mile radius--3 likely epicenters) Now-June 30 Probability 60% Notes: I forecasted NO 7.0 for SoCA from Jan-Apr which came true. I forecasted a possible 4.5-5.9 for SoCA (Long Beach/Chino Hills likely epis) by May 1--a 4.4 hit about 60 miles from Long Beach and was felt on May 1. I sense this could be a foreshock. Basing this prediction on an overdue strong quake for SoCA (5.4 is the strongest which hit last July); rain/heat; more seismic activity in SoCA. I do feel when it does hit it will be more in the San Fernando region vs San Bernardino or Salton Sea areas.

"I've seen a look in dogs' eyes, a quickly vanishing look of amazed contempt, and I am convinced that basically dogs think humans are nuts." --John Steinbeck
http://calorey.blogspot.com/
http://caloreyquakepredictor.blogspot.com/
http://www.calorey.com/

Alaska 5.0+ EQ Prediction Came True

I've been tracking an AK eq swarm...The 3.0s, turned into 4.0s, 5.0s+ today. Definitely a "hit" for Alaska. And, possibly a major quake, may follow. I have a forecast for the West Coast (major quake to happen) on Predictions Forum at http://www.earthquakeepi-center.com/ . Take a look at my forecast several days ago on this blog:

Friday, May 8, 2009

West Coast to Make Its Move
I'm sensing AK, WA, Offshore NorCal or the SF Bay Area down to Morgan Hill should shake--one of these regions--this month. A 5.0+ for AK and Offshore NorCal is not unusual. Tomorrow marks the day of the 5.2 Petrolia quake of May 9. 2007. But AK is getting lively with its 3.0s and recent 5.0s--(see link below) plus has a history of a major quake in 1986. Meanwhile, CA seems like it's in its seismic lull mode again which to me means it's similar to the "quite doggie syndrome." Trouble is brewing.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/AK10/50.60.-160.-140_eqs.php
Posted by Cal Orey, Author-Intuitive at 9:26 AM 3 comments

Magnitude 5.9 - KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
2009 May 16 18:22:26 UTC

Region
KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
Distances
98 km (61 miles) SSE (157°) from Old Harbor, AK
110 km (68 miles) ESE (123°) from Akhiok, AK
139 km (86 miles) SSW (192°) from Chiniak, AK
560 km (348 miles) SSW (199°) from Anchorage, AK
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 17.4 km (10.8 miles); depth +/- 52.7 km (32.7 miles)
Parameters
NST=112, Nph=112, Dmin=698.8 km, Rmss=1.91 sec, Gp=140°,M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=2
Source
Alaska Earthquake Information CenterGeophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Event ID
ak00105068

Mammoth Lakes, Mini Swarm Heats Up

Mammoth Lakes...Mini Swarm Heats Up

In the May 1 issue my monthly Earth Changes "I Can Feel the Earth Move" article "Earthquake Swarms & Tornado Clusters " (submitted in early April) published in Oracle 20-20 magazine (online and in hard copy) included this quake forecast:

Like March, April-May may experience a quake swarm and/or a quake in historical spots known for quake swarms and moderate shakers, such as Mammoth Lakes, Calif., and Offshore Oregon/NorCal (Petrolia or Eurkea). I forecast a 5.0 to 6.0+ in one of these regions by June 1, 70% probability.

Currently, we've got a little swarm going on. And wasn't it swarming a bit earlier this month, too? (I mentioned this forecast also in my first post on this new blog.) I can't help forget the 1980 May swarm, especially between May 25-27. It was enough to get a rise out of the USGS, town, tourists, and Realtors. So, the question remains: Will this quake swarm fizzle or sizzle? http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Maps/119-38.html

Quakes Coming to Offshore NorCal & SF Bay Area

As an earthquake sensitive I have to share...I've had three "orgasmic" left ear tones in the past 24 hours. These are good for quake cues leading to imminent shakers Offshore NorCal and/or the SF Bay Area. I'm going to say 60% probability a 4.0+ will occur within the next week by May 21st in one or both of these regions. Micros and minor shakes have indeed hit in Northern California this past week (some felt) but nothing to write home about. That's all.

Seismic Lull in Golden State

It's too quiet.
Micro near Simi Valley...(I do have an unusual SoCA prediction on http://www.earthquakeepi-center.com/ for a 4.5-5.9 near San Fernando Valley-- potential epicenters Simi Valley, Northridge, Long Beach... ) But it's Offshore NorCal that also is on my mind. A 3.5 today. And can't let go of the SF Bay Area. These "hot" regions are capable of shaking up Californians. The quietude is making me a bit nervous. AWOL dogs/cats for the San Jose region within a 50 mile radius--up from a few days ago. Something feels like something is going to give...soon. May is often shaky or our Golden State could be getting ready for June as it did back in 2005 when it played ping pong in NorCal and SoCA.

West Coast to Make Its Move

I'm sensing AK, WA, Offshore NorCal or the SF Bay Area down to Morgan Hill should shake--one of these regions--this month. A 5.0+ for AK and Offshore NorCal is not unusual. Tomorrow marks the day of the 5.2 Petrolia quake of May 9. 2007. But AK is getting lively with its 3.0s and recent 5.0s--(see link below) plus has a history of a major quake in 1986. Meanwhile, CA seems like it's in its seismic lull mode again which to me means it's similar to the "quite doggie syndrome." Trouble is brewing.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/AK10/50.60.-160.-140_eqs.php

SF Bay Area to Shake Soon?

Memories haunt me of the devastating earthquake on 2008 China May 12. Foreshadow was documented by an exodus of frogs and toads but it was too late. As we near a Full Moon, erratic tides (sample of the East Bay) --(http://www.tidelinesonline.com/displayPredictions.do?locationInfo=1813-527-Oakland+Pier-6&month=5&day=7&year=2009), potential foreshocks of a recent 4.3 Morgan Hill shaker on March 30; an East Bay 2.5 reported felt and a fairly shallow South Bay 3.1 and 3.3 without reports to the USGS--and a 3.5 Morgan Hill quake rumbled through the SF region on April 30, finally reported felt; all makes me wonder if an overdue shake is on the horizon for SF Bay Area.

Missing cats and dogs? Yesterday, lost dogs were at 25, found 13; 6 cats lost. These numbers reflect a San Jose zip code with a 50 mile radius. But reports of dogs in a training class were reported to behaving badly during a class prior to a 3.1 shaker. The end result: 50% probability a 4.5-5.0+ SF Bay Area four-leggers and two-leggers may feel the Earth move in the upcoming days this month. East Bay/South Bay are likely regions for an epicenter (including Oakland, Alum Rock, Morgan Hill).

Watching the Minor EQ Swarm Offshore NorCal

Here, the minor swarm occurring Offshore NorCal. It could fizzle or sizzle in the days to come.

Update time = Wed May 6 10:00:01 PDT 2009Here are the earthquakes appearing on this map, most recent at top ...
MAG DATE LOCAL-TIME LAT LON DEPTH LOCATION
y/m/d h:m:s deg deg km
2.2 2009/05/05 06:08:33 40.346N 124.297W 33.5 3 km ( 2 mi) NNW of Petrolia, CA
2.1 2009/05/04 18:11:57 40.548N 124.158W 7.0 4 km ( 3 mi) SSW of Fortuna, CA
2.1 2009/05/03 11:45:17 40.757N 124.142W 22.0 1 km ( 1 mi) SSE of Cutten, CA
4.2 2009/05/03 10:54:05 40.749N 124.164W 21.0 1 km ( 1 mi) N of Pine Hills, CA
2.7 2009/05/03 04:13:07 40.405N 124.754W 34.0 41 km (25 mi) WNW of Petrolia, CA
2.7 2009/05/01 23:42:18 40.434N 125.142W 0.2 74 km (46 mi) W of Petrolia, CA

Source: USGS

UPDATE: Formula set up for the perfect offshore quake: Full Moon, erratic tides, moderate eq in May 2 yrs ago; 4.2 could have been a foreshock...no left ear tones but images of a shake. Last moderate quake: 5.9 Nov. 28, 2008.

5.2, May 9, 2007 Petrolia, Offshore NorCal
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2007/nc51181705/


Full Moon, May 9

Eureka
Next Five Days (erratic); http://www.tidelinesonline.com/displayPredictions.do?locationInfo=1342-799-Eureka-8&month=5&day=6&year=2009

Source: Tidesonline.com

Welcome to May's Shaky Quake Forecast

EARTH CHANGES -

I can feel the Earth move May ‘09 Earthquake Swarms & Tornado Clusters

By Cal Orey

Here is an excerpt from a column I pen for a national magazine, Oracle 20-20...

Last spring both I, an earthquake intuitive and my pets, sensed the earthquake swarm in West Reno. On April 24, the tremors were increasing in magnitude and my sensitive Brittanys, Simon and Seth were roughhousing and “Velcro canines”—a good sign of an oncoming quake. My uncanny black cat Kerouac was pacing in and out of the rooms, and vocalizing hour after hour.

The next night, at 11:42 p.m., a 4.7 earthquake struck six miles west of Reno and was reported widely felt to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) by more than 2,000 people—in Reno and other Sierra Nevada towns—including me and my seismic sentries. And that wasn’t all. While the late April quake was the strongest shaker, shallow tremors continued on throughout May and into the summer months frazzling residents’ nerves and puzzling scientists. These days, experts’ theories are available to pinpoint which faults may be linked to the past earthquake swarm monikered the “West Reno, Nevada Earthquake Sequence.” It was an unforgettable event that may start up again. Or not.

May Forcast: Like March, April-May may experience a quake swarm and/or a quake in historical spots known for quake swarms and moderate shakers, such as Mammoth Lakes, Calif., and Offshore Oregon/NorCal (Petrolia or Eureka). I forecast a 5.0 to 6.0+ in one of these regions by June 1, 70% probability.

UPDATE: MAY 6: A seismic lull seems to be occurring in California this month but...a 4.2 did shake Eureka on May 3 and it could be a foreshock. Also, some micros have hit in the past few days in this region but the month has barely begun.