Original Prediction: May Forcast: Like March, April-May may experience a quake swarm and/or a quake in historical spots known for quake swarms and moderate shakers, such as Mammoth Lakes, Calif., and Offshore Oregon/NorCal (Petrolia or Eureka). I forecast a 5.0 to 6.0+ in one of these regions by June 1, 70% probability.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
May Offshore NorCal/OR-Mammoth Lakes Quake Forecast Update
Update: My May forecast made in Oracle 20-20 magazine included a 5.0-6.0 swarm/quake in two regions. So far, a 4.2 struck near Eureka, Offshore NorCal on May 3; 4.2 did hit Offshore OR on May 26; an ongoing swarm including a 4.7 on the 23rd hit approximately 100 miles south of Mammoth Lakes on the edge of the Sierra Nevada; a minor swarm rumbled around Mammoth Lakes earlier in mid month. Five days left. It could go either way or fizzle. 50% probability a 5.0 will hit the regions in my forecast.
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