Wednesday, December 23, 2009

I Predicted the Sierra Nevada Shaker

By Cal Orey, Author Intuitive
California, the Golden State has been in a seismic lull. My earthquake wager with geologist Jim Berkland has been ongoing for nearly three years. Still no 6.0 has hit NorCal (my choice of region) nor his SoCal. My three choices for potential epicenters have remained the same: Offshore NorCal (Petrolia or Eureka), SF Bay Area (East/South Bay), and Tahoe Vista...
Fast forward to December 8, 2009: I did forecast a 4.0-5.0 may hit the Sierra Nevada region by December 31. There was a swarm a few days after and then it paid us a visit again and ended up in a 3.8 (downgraded by the USGS) to a 3.7. The shaker was reported to the USGS by more than 140 people--felt in South Lake Tahoe to Reno. And, the epicenter was near my picks--Tahoe Vista (a place where a 4.8 hit several years ago and I felt it, my cat sensed it).

Take a look at the forecast: Sierra NV 4.0-5.0 NOW-Dec. 31, scroll down a couple of posts to original forecast and mention of seimsic lull--and snow which can trigger quakes as both Jim Berkland and I noted in a past Tahoe Daily Tribune article.

On my site (I am co-founder/moderator/author of The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes and columnist for Earth Changes, Oracle 20-20 magazine)
www.earthquakeepi-center.com click on the forums (Predictions) the Sierra Nevada prediction is on top. I'm holding my ground that there still is a 60% probability for a 4-5.0 to hit by December 31.

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