Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Welcome to May's Shaky Quake Forecast





EARTH CHANGES -






By Cal Orey


Here is an excerpt from a column I pen for a national magazine, Oracle 20-20...

Last spring both I, an earthquake intuitive and my pets, sensed the earthquake swarm in West Reno. On April 24, the tremors were increasing in magnitude and my sensitive Brittanys, Simon and Seth were roughhousing and “Velcro canines”—a good sign of an oncoming quake. My uncanny black cat Kerouac was pacing in and out of the rooms, and vocalizing hour after hour.


The next night, at 11:42 p.m., a 4.7 earthquake struck six miles west of Reno and was reported widely felt to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) by more than 2,000 people—in Reno and other Sierra Nevada towns—including me and my seismic sentries. And that wasn’t all. While the late April quake was the strongest shaker, shallow tremors continued on throughout May and into the summer months frazzling residents’ nerves and puzzling scientists. These days, experts’ theories are available to pinpoint which faults may be linked to the past earthquake swarm monikered the “West Reno, Nevada Earthquake Sequence.” It was an unforgettable event that may start up again. Or not.



May Forcast: Like March, April-May may experience a quake swarm and/or a quake in historical spots known for quake swarms and moderate shakers, such as Mammoth Lakes, Calif., and Offshore Oregon/NorCal (Petrolia or Eureka). I forecast a 5.0 to 6.0+ in one of these regions by June 1, 70% probability.


UPDATE: MAY 6: A seismic lull seems to be occurring in California this month but...a 4.2 did shake Eureka on May 3 and it could be a foreshock. Also, some micros have hit in the past few days in this region but the month has barely begun.

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