Wednesday, December 23, 2009

I Predicted the Sierra Nevada Shaker

By Cal Orey, Author Intuitive
California, the Golden State has been in a seismic lull. My earthquake wager with geologist Jim Berkland has been ongoing for nearly three years. Still no 6.0 has hit NorCal (my choice of region) nor his SoCal. My three choices for potential epicenters have remained the same: Offshore NorCal (Petrolia or Eureka), SF Bay Area (East/South Bay), and Tahoe Vista...
Fast forward to December 8, 2009: I did forecast a 4.0-5.0 may hit the Sierra Nevada region by December 31. There was a swarm a few days after and then it paid us a visit again and ended up in a 3.8 (downgraded by the USGS) to a 3.7. The shaker was reported to the USGS by more than 140 people--felt in South Lake Tahoe to Reno. And, the epicenter was near my picks--Tahoe Vista (a place where a 4.8 hit several years ago and I felt it, my cat sensed it).

Take a look at the forecast: Sierra NV 4.0-5.0 NOW-Dec. 31, scroll down a couple of posts to original forecast and mention of seimsic lull--and snow which can trigger quakes as both Jim Berkland and I noted in a past Tahoe Daily Tribune article.

On my site (I am co-founder/moderator/author of The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes and columnist for Earth Changes, Oracle 20-20 magazine)
www.earthquakeepi-center.com click on the forums (Predictions) the Sierra Nevada prediction is on top. I'm holding my ground that there still is a 60% probability for a 4-5.0 to hit by December 31.

Monday, December 7, 2009

My Anti-Prediction a HIT--No 8.0 "Huge" CA Quake

By Cal Orey, Author Intuitive
As co-founder of www.earthquakeepi-center.com I posted an anti-prediction towards a whimsical earthquake forecast made by an individual with no name. It was picked up by an online writer and included a picture of the golden state which showed a big, big circle near Lake Tahoe--my home. Of course, I took notice and made my own prediction which hit. We survived the great quake that didn't happen. Here, take a look at my post and anti-prediction:
NEW CA Prediction: Don't Hold Your Breath
Reply #2 on: November 05, 2009, 07:55:28 PM
Sure, a great quake is possible in the next 2 months. But CA? Come on, we all know who this "quake predictor" may be and the track record for CA going down? It's well, here's my response to the writer of the article... Also, I will give $100 to a charity if a "great" 8.0+ hits CA this month. In other words, I'm making an anti-prediction (again) it ain't going to happen. (Accuracy rate? 100%) But, a major quake such as a 7.0 to 7.2 (or so) Offshore NorCal (Petrolia/Eureka) is possible but not GREAT. One more thing: Just reread the "article." Yeah, an Indian Ocean great quake or China great quake is possible (and even AK, for sure) before 2010 but CA? Not yet.your article is absurd. Your quake predictor is nameless. No data. You are setting up gullible Californians for a let down and panic. People, like me, have to settle folks down because of such pieces. Shame on you.
"A dog doesn't care if you're rich or poor. If you give him your heart, he'll give you his." -- Marley & Me www.calorey.com
And for those curious, here's the link to the quake prediction that fizzled: