Monday, June 15, 2009

A Perfect Quake: Offshore NorCal Overdue for Shaker in June

A Perfect Setup for an Earthquake Sequel?

I remember June 15, 2005--7.2 Offshore NorCal Shaker... Let's face it. This region is usually seismically active. But today, Offshore Northern California is experiencing a mega seismic lull (unlike 4 years ago) with recent small teaser-type swarms both offshore and inland of NorCal. We haven't had much significant movement for more than six months--and it's overdue to shake.

On Nov. 29, 2008 a 5.9 hit near Petrolia. And, who can forget on June 15, 2005 "California June Jitters" a 7.2 struck which was followed by a faulty tsunami alert for a short span. Then, a 6.7 aftershock and 4.9 came and went. Today, is the anniversary of the memorable shaker during a month of more than one California shaker.

Fast forward: June 2009, I'm sensing this vulnerable offshore coastal area--Petrolia, Eureka, Crescent City--in that order for a potential epi, should shake this month. It could happen now all the way until and through the upcoming New Moon on June 22 and extreme tidal period coming later this month. The lunar cycle and erratic tides could give it a push. Or not.

Prediction

5.0+ Offshore NorCal

Potential Epi: Petrolia, Eureka, Crescent City

Now-June 30

Probability 50%

Notes: Long left ear tone (in a public place yesterday--very odd for me); history often repeats itself; activity this month including a swarm of minor quakes may have been a sign for an upcoming quake.

1 comment:

  1. A coincidence? A subtle reminder?
    A microearthquake occurred at 10:18:49 AM (PDT) on Monday, June 15, 2009.
    The magnitude 2.5 event occurred 12 km (7 miles) NW of Petrolia, CA.
    The hypocentral depth is 20 km (12 miles).
    Magnitude 2.5 - duration magnitude (Md)
    Time Monday, June 15, 2009 at 10:18:49 AM (PDT)
    Monday, June 15, 2009 at 17:18:49 (UTC)
    Distance from Petrolia, CA - 12 km (7 miles) NW (316 degrees)
    Ferndale, CA - 22 km (14 miles) SSW (207 degrees)
    Rio Dell, CA - 26 km (16 miles) WSW (246 degrees)
    Eureka, CA - 47 km (29 miles) SSW (203 degrees)
    Sacramento, CA - 324 km (201 miles) NW (310 degrees)

    Coordinates 40 deg. 24.2 min. N (40.403N), 124 deg. 23.0 min. W (124.383W)
    Depth 19.5 km (12.1 miles)
    Location Quality Poor
    Location Quality Parameters Nst= 20, Nph= 20, Dmin=22 km, Rmss=0.25 sec, Erho=4.5 km, Erzz=1.4 km, Gp=244.8 degrees
    Event ID# nc40238222

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