May Offshore NorCal/OR-Mammoth Lakes Quake Forecast Update

Update: My May forecast made in Oracle 20-20 magazine included a 5.0-6.0 swarm/quake in two regions. So far, a 4.2 struck near Eureka, Offshore NorCal on May 3; 4.2 did hit Offshore OR on May 26; an ongoing swarm including a 4.7 on the 23rd hit approximately 100 miles south of Mammoth Lakes on the edge of the Sierra Nevada; a minor swarm rumbled around Mammoth Lakes earlier in mid month. Five days left. It could go either way or fizzle. 50% probability a 5.0 will hit the regions in my forecast.

Original Prediction: May Forcast: Like March, April-May may experience a quake swarm and/or a quake in historical spots known for quake swarms and moderate shakers, such as Mammoth Lakes, Calif., and Offshore Oregon/NorCal (Petrolia or Eureka). I forecast a 5.0 to 6.0+ in one of these regions by June 1, 70% probability.

California: Offshore NorCal, Mammoth, SoCA May Rumble

NorCal or SoCA May Rumble Before June

All is quiet in the Golden State. Too quiet. Still sensing Offshore NorCal (a few micros today); SF Bay Area (Morgan Hill teases with a micro; AWOL dogs are up in San Jose with a 50 mile radius); or Mammoth Lakes (a mini swarm continues in the Sierra Nevada) will rattle nerves with a shake or two.

Not to ignore the SoCA reports I've gotten in the past two days (both humans and pets are on edge and/or acting out near the Long Beach and Los Angeles area, including Northridge). Cats are affectionate and vocal. Dogs restless. Humans noting physical cues to rehashing memories of Northridge earthquake of 1994.

So, it wouldn't be shocking to see more movement in the San Fernando Valley region. Sticking with my prediction in the Earth Changes May article that Offshore NorCal or Mammoth may shake a 5.0. (Ditto with more coming, stronger shaking following the recent Greater Los Angeles but may be extended until June.)

One week left in May, one would think the Earth will move some where, some place, some time in California as the tides will be erratic in a few days and the New Moon rises. Still, if nothing happens June may be a repeat of June Jitters 2005--the ping pong quake effect in NorCal and SoCA.

Note: I noted the same feeling on May 10 (scroll down to archived post on this blog) regarding a seismic lull. One week later: SoCA rocked on cue.

Sierra Ready to Shake?

SIERRA REGION IS OVERDUE FOR A SHAKER

I've been getting word images "Mammoth Lakes" and the "Sierra" which are getting stronger. A swarm of micros (again) this month are south of Tahoe and on the NV side of the Sierra Nevada region. http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Maps/119-37.html
Last year we were dealing with the ongoing swarm at Verdi-Mogul...And there is the 1980 Mammoth Lakes big quake swarm with 6.0s. We've got a New Moon on the rise in a few days so I'm on my toes and watching to see if my seismically sensitive critters will be on their paws. So far, fairly mellow here. But a moderate quake around the Tahoe area (Tahoe Vista, Truckee and south down to Markleeville) as well as Mammoth Lakes is over due and it wouldn't shock me if we did get a main shock before May is over...
Speaking of months. June isn't out of the question either for a moderate Sierra shaker. In June 2005, Tahoe Vista shook a strong 4.8 and my cat sensed it prior and 15 minutes before it rocked my house. http://www.calorey.com/WomanPredictsQuakes.html [Scroll down to #4]
And there is a new study circulating about how Lake Tahoe is capable of a major quake plus. Read: A whole lotta water out there from the deep, dark, cold lake could produce a seiche or tsunami as it did centuries ago.

Author-Intuitive Predicted SoCal 4.7 Quake

Oops. I did it again. On my Web site http://www.earthquakeepi-center.com/ I forecasted a quake to rumble through Southern California--and I noted the date, potential epicenters, and probability. Long Beach was my first choice--and Long Beach certainly felt the jolt. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/dyfi/events/ci/10410337/us/index.html

Here, take a look. Also, you can go to the site and check it out on Predictions Forums.

SoCA, 4.5-5.9+ Now-June 30 « on: May 02, 2009, 11:33:01 AM »

Prediction 4.5-5.9+ SoCA (Long Beach, Simi Valley, Northridge within 60 mile radius--3 likely epicenters) Now-June 30 Probability 60% Notes: I forecasted NO 7.0 for SoCA from Jan-Apr which came true. I forecasted a possible 4.5-5.9 for SoCA (Long Beach/Chino Hills likely epis) by May 1--a 4.4 hit about 60 miles from Long Beach and was felt on May 1. I sense this could be a foreshock. Basing this prediction on an overdue strong quake for SoCA (5.4 is the strongest which hit last July); rain/heat; more seismic activity in SoCA. I do feel when it does hit it will be more in the San Fernando region vs San Bernardino or Salton Sea areas.

"I've seen a look in dogs' eyes, a quickly vanishing look of amazed contempt, and I am convinced that basically dogs think humans are nuts." --John Steinbeck
http://calorey.blogspot.com/
http://caloreyquakepredictor.blogspot.com/
http://www.calorey.com/

Alaska 5.0+ EQ Prediction Came True

I've been tracking an AK eq swarm...The 3.0s, turned into 4.0s, 5.0s+ today. Definitely a "hit" for Alaska. And, possibly a major quake, may follow. I have a forecast for the West Coast (major quake to happen) on Predictions Forum at http://www.earthquakeepi-center.com/ . Take a look at my forecast several days ago on this blog:

Friday, May 8, 2009

West Coast to Make Its Move
I'm sensing AK, WA, Offshore NorCal or the SF Bay Area down to Morgan Hill should shake--one of these regions--this month. A 5.0+ for AK and Offshore NorCal is not unusual. Tomorrow marks the day of the 5.2 Petrolia quake of May 9. 2007. But AK is getting lively with its 3.0s and recent 5.0s--(see link below) plus has a history of a major quake in 1986. Meanwhile, CA seems like it's in its seismic lull mode again which to me means it's similar to the "quite doggie syndrome." Trouble is brewing.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/AK10/50.60.-160.-140_eqs.php
Posted by Cal Orey, Author-Intuitive at 9:26 AM 3 comments

Magnitude 5.9 - KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
2009 May 16 18:22:26 UTC

Region
KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
Distances
98 km (61 miles) SSE (157°) from Old Harbor, AK
110 km (68 miles) ESE (123°) from Akhiok, AK
139 km (86 miles) SSW (192°) from Chiniak, AK
560 km (348 miles) SSW (199°) from Anchorage, AK
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 17.4 km (10.8 miles); depth +/- 52.7 km (32.7 miles)
Parameters
NST=112, Nph=112, Dmin=698.8 km, Rmss=1.91 sec, Gp=140°,M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=2
Source
Alaska Earthquake Information CenterGeophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Event ID
ak00105068

Mammoth Lakes, Mini Swarm Heats Up

Mammoth Lakes...Mini Swarm Heats Up

In the May 1 issue my monthly Earth Changes "I Can Feel the Earth Move" article "Earthquake Swarms & Tornado Clusters " (submitted in early April) published in Oracle 20-20 magazine (online and in hard copy) included this quake forecast:

Like March, April-May may experience a quake swarm and/or a quake in historical spots known for quake swarms and moderate shakers, such as Mammoth Lakes, Calif., and Offshore Oregon/NorCal (Petrolia or Eurkea). I forecast a 5.0 to 6.0+ in one of these regions by June 1, 70% probability.

Currently, we've got a little swarm going on. And wasn't it swarming a bit earlier this month, too? (I mentioned this forecast also in my first post on this new blog.) I can't help forget the 1980 May swarm, especially between May 25-27. It was enough to get a rise out of the USGS, town, tourists, and Realtors. So, the question remains: Will this quake swarm fizzle or sizzle? http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Maps/119-38.html

Quakes Coming to Offshore NorCal & SF Bay Area

As an earthquake sensitive I have to share...I've had three "orgasmic" left ear tones in the past 24 hours. These are good for quake cues leading to imminent shakers Offshore NorCal and/or the SF Bay Area. I'm going to say 60% probability a 4.0+ will occur within the next week by May 21st in one or both of these regions. Micros and minor shakes have indeed hit in Northern California this past week (some felt) but nothing to write home about. That's all.

Seismic Lull in Golden State

It's too quiet.
Micro near Simi Valley...(I do have an unusual SoCA prediction on http://www.earthquakeepi-center.com/ for a 4.5-5.9 near San Fernando Valley-- potential epicenters Simi Valley, Northridge, Long Beach... ) But it's Offshore NorCal that also is on my mind. A 3.5 today. And can't let go of the SF Bay Area. These "hot" regions are capable of shaking up Californians. The quietude is making me a bit nervous. AWOL dogs/cats for the San Jose region within a 50 mile radius--up from a few days ago. Something feels like something is going to give...soon. May is often shaky or our Golden State could be getting ready for June as it did back in 2005 when it played ping pong in NorCal and SoCA.

West Coast to Make Its Move

I'm sensing AK, WA, Offshore NorCal or the SF Bay Area down to Morgan Hill should shake--one of these regions--this month. A 5.0+ for AK and Offshore NorCal is not unusual. Tomorrow marks the day of the 5.2 Petrolia quake of May 9. 2007. But AK is getting lively with its 3.0s and recent 5.0s--(see link below) plus has a history of a major quake in 1986. Meanwhile, CA seems like it's in its seismic lull mode again which to me means it's similar to the "quite doggie syndrome." Trouble is brewing.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/AK10/50.60.-160.-140_eqs.php

SF Bay Area to Shake Soon?

Memories haunt me of the devastating earthquake on 2008 China May 12. Foreshadow was documented by an exodus of frogs and toads but it was too late. As we near a Full Moon, erratic tides (sample of the East Bay) --(http://www.tidelinesonline.com/displayPredictions.do?locationInfo=1813-527-Oakland+Pier-6&month=5&day=7&year=2009), potential foreshocks of a recent 4.3 Morgan Hill shaker on March 30; an East Bay 2.5 reported felt and a fairly shallow South Bay 3.1 and 3.3 without reports to the USGS--and a 3.5 Morgan Hill quake rumbled through the SF region on April 30, finally reported felt; all makes me wonder if an overdue shake is on the horizon for SF Bay Area.

Missing cats and dogs? Yesterday, lost dogs were at 25, found 13; 6 cats lost. These numbers reflect a San Jose zip code with a 50 mile radius. But reports of dogs in a training class were reported to behaving badly during a class prior to a 3.1 shaker. The end result: 50% probability a 4.5-5.0+ SF Bay Area four-leggers and two-leggers may feel the Earth move in the upcoming days this month. East Bay/South Bay are likely regions for an epicenter (including Oakland, Alum Rock, Morgan Hill).

Watching the Minor EQ Swarm Offshore NorCal

Here, the minor swarm occurring Offshore NorCal. It could fizzle or sizzle in the days to come.

Update time = Wed May 6 10:00:01 PDT 2009Here are the earthquakes appearing on this map, most recent at top ...
MAG DATE LOCAL-TIME LAT LON DEPTH LOCATION
y/m/d h:m:s deg deg km
2.2 2009/05/05 06:08:33 40.346N 124.297W 33.5 3 km ( 2 mi) NNW of Petrolia, CA
2.1 2009/05/04 18:11:57 40.548N 124.158W 7.0 4 km ( 3 mi) SSW of Fortuna, CA
2.1 2009/05/03 11:45:17 40.757N 124.142W 22.0 1 km ( 1 mi) SSE of Cutten, CA
4.2 2009/05/03 10:54:05 40.749N 124.164W 21.0 1 km ( 1 mi) N of Pine Hills, CA
2.7 2009/05/03 04:13:07 40.405N 124.754W 34.0 41 km (25 mi) WNW of Petrolia, CA
2.7 2009/05/01 23:42:18 40.434N 125.142W 0.2 74 km (46 mi) W of Petrolia, CA

Source: USGS

UPDATE: Formula set up for the perfect offshore quake: Full Moon, erratic tides, moderate eq in May 2 yrs ago; 4.2 could have been a foreshock...no left ear tones but images of a shake. Last moderate quake: 5.9 Nov. 28, 2008.

5.2, May 9, 2007 Petrolia, Offshore NorCal
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2007/nc51181705/


Full Moon, May 9

Eureka
Next Five Days (erratic); http://www.tidelinesonline.com/displayPredictions.do?locationInfo=1342-799-Eureka-8&month=5&day=6&year=2009

Source: Tidesonline.com

Welcome to May's Shaky Quake Forecast

EARTH CHANGES -

I can feel the Earth move May ‘09 Earthquake Swarms & Tornado Clusters

By Cal Orey

Here is an excerpt from a column I pen for a national magazine, Oracle 20-20...

Last spring both I, an earthquake intuitive and my pets, sensed the earthquake swarm in West Reno. On April 24, the tremors were increasing in magnitude and my sensitive Brittanys, Simon and Seth were roughhousing and “Velcro canines”—a good sign of an oncoming quake. My uncanny black cat Kerouac was pacing in and out of the rooms, and vocalizing hour after hour.

The next night, at 11:42 p.m., a 4.7 earthquake struck six miles west of Reno and was reported widely felt to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) by more than 2,000 people—in Reno and other Sierra Nevada towns—including me and my seismic sentries. And that wasn’t all. While the late April quake was the strongest shaker, shallow tremors continued on throughout May and into the summer months frazzling residents’ nerves and puzzling scientists. These days, experts’ theories are available to pinpoint which faults may be linked to the past earthquake swarm monikered the “West Reno, Nevada Earthquake Sequence.” It was an unforgettable event that may start up again. Or not.

May Forcast: Like March, April-May may experience a quake swarm and/or a quake in historical spots known for quake swarms and moderate shakers, such as Mammoth Lakes, Calif., and Offshore Oregon/NorCal (Petrolia or Eureka). I forecast a 5.0 to 6.0+ in one of these regions by June 1, 70% probability.

UPDATE: MAY 6: A seismic lull seems to be occurring in California this month but...a 4.2 did shake Eureka on May 3 and it could be a foreshock. Also, some micros have hit in the past few days in this region but the month has barely begun.